Three months before the planned start, organiser A.S.O. is publicly sticking to a Dakar Rally in Saudi Arabia, from 1 to 15 January. Behind the scenes, however, according to the Spanish sports papers AS and Mundo Deportivo, an alternative is being given serious consideration. During the Rallye du Maroc in Zagora, the organisation reportedly briefed the teams on two scenarios: a revised route through the north of Saudi Arabia, or a shorter eight-stage race in Morocco under the name ‘Rally Merzouga by Dakar’.
That reporting is based on what teams, drivers and navigators say after their conversations with the organisation; A.S.O. itself has confirmed nothing yet. Even so, the accounts in both papers line up closely, and the thrust is clear: the question is no longer whether there will be racing in January, but where, and under what name.
One message, two timelines
The core of what A.S.O. told the teams is, according to AS, simple: the Dakar is going ahead, and Saudi Arabia has absolute priority. Morocco will only be activated if there is no other option. According to Mundo Deportivo, many teams left the meeting more reassured than they had arrived.
On the timing of the decision, the papers disagree. Mundo Deportivo writes that A.S.O. calls the next fifteen days decisive. AS expects a decision at the end of November. Participants will, according to AS, know where they stand before the caravan gathers in Barcelona on 29 November to ship the equipment. Until then they have to commit money, personnel and logistics to a rally whose host country is still undecided.
Plan A: northern route without Yanbu
If the Dakar goes to Saudi Arabia, little will remain of the route presented in May, with its 8,390 kilometres of which 5,320 kilometres were special stages. According to AS, the caravan would then run exclusively in the north, far from the border with Yemen, with fewer bivouacs, as few transfers between camps as possible and an extra-secured press area. The total distance would barely change.
Participants whom Mundo Deportivo spoke to, without the paper naming them, add to this. The team manager of an established Dakar outfit says the route avoids Yanbu and stays as far as possible from the conflict zone. A Spanish navigator with numerous Dakar appearances knows of a roadbook maker now on the ground plotting the new route, something A.S.O. is still awaiting permission for in areas north of Ha’il.
Dropping Yanbu speaks volumes. The Red Sea port city was the finish of the first stage, and it was precisely there that the threat grew: in late August the Houthis claimed to have hit a Saudi oil tanker off the coast, and on 24 September, according to Reuters, Aramco facilities in the city as well.
Yet the north is not free of risk. On 3 October, the Houthis, according to Mundo Deportivo citing the news agency EFE, claimed a missile and drone attack on Aramco facilities in Riyadh. The FOM had already decided to move the Bahrain Formula 1 race to Malaysia because of the problems in the region. On top of that, A.S.O. has to do in a few weeks what normally takes months: scout a new route, arrange permits and work out a full security plan.
Plan B: ‘Rally Merzouga by Dakar’
The Moroccan scenario is an emergency solution. According to a team manager, it would be an eight-stage race that would be cheaper than the Dakar. AS likewise speaks of a reduction from fifteen to eight racing days, with the start just after Epiphany; Marca earlier named 8 January. The same team manager offered a telling glimpse of the mood: if the teams had to leave for Saudi Arabia now, they would not go.
On the character of that event, the sources differ in tone. AS writes of a Dakar returning to its origins, in a modified but safe form. The name that teams mention to Mundo Deportivo points more towards a derivative event, and there appears to be a contractual reason for that (see below). Either way, it will be shorter and smaller than the Dakar announced in May.
In practical terms, Morocco is the obvious choice: the country has hosted a W2RC round for years, the terrain is familiar, and the authorities are used to rally raid. The rights to that world championship round lie with Pro Dunes, the organiser of the Rallye du Maroc, with Pep Vila and Marc Coma among its investors. Vila confirmed to Mundo Deportivo that A.S.O. has made contact. Normally no one can simply organise a world championship round in Morocco, but because it concerns the Dakar, Pro Dunes is raising no obstacles. He called plan B “credible and feasible” and sees no third option alongside Saudi Arabia or Morocco.
Vila also laid bare why A.S.O. is holding on to Saudi Arabia for so long: there is a contract, and contracts must be honoured. At the same time, time is passing without the situation improving.
Sources at RallyTracks.nl shed light on what that contract is said to involve. A.S.O. has an agreement with Saudi Arabia for a rally under the name Dakar, and according to those sources it may not organise a Dakar outside the country without Saudi permission. As long as Saudi Arabia indicates that the rally can go ahead, A.S.O. would be obliged to proceed with it. The precise contract terms are not public, and A.S.O. has not responded to this. If it is correct, it explains two things: why the organisation is so emphatically sticking to Saudi Arabia in public, and why the Moroccan alternative is not simply called ‘Dakar’ but ‘Rally Merzouga by Dakar’.
That sharpens the tension RallyTracks.nl already described in September. Not A.S.O. but Saudi Arabia appears to have the final word on whether the rally goes ahead in the country. At the same time, the manufacturers and insurers determine whether, in that case, a full field of competitors will actually make the start.
The contrast with January 2025 is stark. Dakar director David Castera then rejected a return to Africa in comments to Mundo Deportivo: Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal were too unsafe, and a rally in Morocco alone, a far smaller country than Saudi Arabia, was not something he favoured either. A year and a half later, that is precisely the emergency solution. Why the Dakar left Africa in the first place can be read in our earlier background piece.
The manufacturers set the pace
AS calls A.S.O.’s Saudi solutions well-founded on paper, but states that several teams have already made clear they will not travel to a conflict zone. The fact that this stance comes from outfits such as Toyota and KTM, the paper says, puts considerable pressure on the search for alternatives. KTM team boss Andreas Hölzl puts it more carefully to Mundo Deportivo. KTM wants to race no matter what, but he does not expect the situation to improve in the short term and hopes for “a safe plan B”. The brand is there for the sport, does not want to get caught up in a military conflict, and will make the decision that is right for KTM.
That the manufacturers can tip the balance was already shown by the WRC. After Toyota and Hyundai let it be known that their personnel were not allowed to travel to Saudi Arabia, the FIA on 17 September stripped the Rally of Saudi Arabia of its WRC status, despite the Saudi organisers’ assurance that the event could take place safely. Toyota is also active in the W2RC with Toyota Gazoo Racing. Carlos Sainz said, according to AS, that if the conflict persists, “common sense” will be used.
Who carries the risk?
For smaller teams the question plays out on a different level. A spokesperson for a small team explained that Spanish insurance policies cover nothing that happens in Saudi Arabia; that cover runs via the Dakar entry. The marine insurance for the equipment transport pays out only a low amount per kilo in the event of loss. It is exactly the problem Ronald van Loon ran into in September, when he could not get his equipment insured for transport by ship.
A.S.O. is trying to take away part of that concern. According to a team leader, Castera pledged that everything booked through the organisation, such as entry, flights and hotels, will be fully refunded if the Dakar does not go ahead in Saudi Arabia. Anyone taking part in the Moroccan race gets the difference back, and the credit can also be carried over to the 2028 Dakar.
Most vulnerable are the assistance companies, which draw a large part of their annual turnover from the Dakar. The head of one such company expects some of the one-off entrants to drop out if the rally does not take place in Saudi Arabia, while others may opt for Morocco precisely because of the lower price. Among drivers, support for plan B is growing: a Catalan driver who has raced every Dakar for years calls the risk in Saudi Arabia too great and Morocco, as a way to salvage this season, a very valid option.
Dutch teams and the Africa Eco Race
Among the Dutch, Ronald van Loon and William de Groot had already pulled out of a Saudi Dakar, while Arjan van Tiel, Marnix Leeuw, Janus van Kasteren, Michiel Becx and Kees Koolen, among others, are pressing on with their preparations. The communication whose absence Leeuw expressed surprise at in September is now getting under way, although it is happening via a meeting with the teams and not yet via an official A.S.O. statement.
The Africa Eco Race, too, is cast in a different light. The 18th edition features twelve stages through Morocco, Mauritania and Senegal, starting on 24 January in Tangier and finishing at Lac Rose on 6 February. A Moroccan emergency edition just after Epiphany would end well before that, meaning Morocco would host two major rally raids in quick succession in January. Several teams have, according to the Spanish reporting, already chosen the Africa Eco Race, and as RallyTracks.nl reported earlier, Dutch teams with Dakar ambitions are also enquiring about this alternative.
What now?
Strikingly, the 2026 W2RC season is meanwhile simply being settled in the Gulf region, with the Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge from 22 to 27 November as the closing round. For the Dakar it is becoming clear that there will be racing in January, in Saudi Arabia or in Morocco. Whether that turns out to be a full Dakar or an emergency edition under a different name depends on factors largely outside A.S.O.’s control: Saudi Arabia’s stance, the manufacturers’ choices and the insurers’ willingness to cover the risks. If Saudi Arabia keeps giving the green light while manufacturers and insurers pull out, A.S.O. faces a difficult dilemma.
As long as A.S.O. confirms nothing, it remains a waiting game. RallyTracks.nl is following developments and will come with an update as soon as there is a definitive decision.
